Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Twenty-seven MDC members file senate papers!

This just in; 27 MDC members from six provinces have filed papers with the Nomination Court for their respective provinces according to NewZimbabwe.com and Zimonline.

Not to be startled, Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC president announced that he doesn't recognize the candidates as members of his party. He's clearly standing by his (Mugabe-like) threat to oust anyone who defiled his decision.

Here's the real question; how are the standing political parties going to respond to these renegade candidates? Assuming (and this is unlikely), that the MDC will indeed expel those that did file papers without their party leader's sanction, the candidates are now outsiders to the party. They leave it with their resources and supporters, making MDC a much weaker political party. Let's not forget that the candidates are from the same provinces that the MDC has been walloping ZANU, we're talking a large chunk of their rural base.

As for ZANU who'd been enjoying the infighting of it's opponent, the worst case scenario could be well on its way to fruition. Now ZANU's largely geriatric candidates are facing stiff challenges for provinces that ZANU-PF was hoping to regain from the MDC. Regaining those provinces is not going to happen as easily as hoped if ever. All of sudden the senate idea doesn't appear as great as ZANU had hoped it would. And if the MDC decides to sanction the election and field candidates across the country (which they did for the parliamentaries in March), get ready ZANU for another bitterly contested election.

As if we need more drama in Zimbabwe let's not forget that we're still awaiting the launch of the much talked about "Third Force." Can you imagine what this would mean if somehow the 26 senate elections bonded with other former ZANU and MDC members to become Zim's third political party right now. It might happen.

There's a lot that could happen. This whole senate thing is turning out to be much more compelling than I had expected!

More later.

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